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Written by Dr David Marx
This article is written mainly for the beginning fancier who does not know exactly what to expect with losses. The statements made here do not recommend a scientific study, nor does it reflect any statistical numbers. They are only my thoughts that I have accumulated through years of breeding and racing.
Survival of the egg (or more correctly, the embryo inside the egg):
When breeding in the winter, one needs to expect a higher percentage of clear eggs. This is due mainly to the fact that many cock's fertility is at a low this time of year. The stimulation of breeding hurries their return to full fertility, but often this is too late to make the first clutch of eggs fertile. It often is only on egg, but both eggs being clear on the first round is not extraordinary. The percentage of clear eggs should not be more than about 25%, but the particular season may cause this to be greater.
Eggs that begin development and then the young die while being incubated is usually due to a genetic aberration or, more likely, to an infection that becomes incorporated in the egg before it is laid. Here, the hen may have an infection of the oviduct.
The eggs can become contaminated after being laid. Here, the bacteria enter through the shell, usually when the egg is moist and/or has been contaminated with feces. The contamination may come from the nesting material or from the parents' feet. These eggs become dark.
The baby inside the egg may also die from trauma (fighting in the nest) or from neglect, causing them to get chilled. After the first round, I would expect a high percentage of the eggs hatching; 90% or even better.
Death of the squab in the nest after hatching can occur if they were only mildly affected inside the egg, or if the navel area gets contaminated with large numbers of bacteria before the navel dries and seals. Here again, this may occur secondary to contaminated nesting material or from the feces adhering to the parents' feet. Babies can become infected from their parents, either with heavy loads of trichomoniasis or from various other bacteria. These usually die a little later than those mentioned first.
A small percentage die from actually getting stomped on by parents or after being left too long without being covered (becoming chilled). Some of these babies appear to have been trampled, but actually died or got so weak that the parents could not sense them in the nest. Regardless, survival from hatching to weaning should approach 90% +.
Lofting-in of the young ones can result in death or losses if not done cautiously and timed right...they may become too strong on the wing and get too far away before they develop their homing ability. Losses will also occur due to the birds getting taken by Hawks, or hitting wires or tree limbs. The numbers lost before training begins, I would expect, would be no more than 10% normally. Situations happen which can make this percentage higher, but these are unusual.
Training usually produces some attrition as well. Those birds that are in poor health or which do not possess the athletic makeup of a flyer, or the "dummies" which are unable to home properly, are the ones we drop first. Also, wires, hawks, etc., may affect this number as well. Training, depending on judicious technique, weather, and the terrain they must learn to navigate, can result in 10-30% losses. There will be seasons where there will be little or no losses, and others where a good number are lost.
Remember that the reason or reasons that losses occur vary greatly depending on the flyer's capability and the general health of the loft. These figures I give are only rough guidelines and represent what I feel is an average. Average numbers are produced when the extremes on each end, as well as other fluctuations, are taken into account. The more that things are done correctly and done timely will lower your expected losses. So don't forget to do all the small things when striving for success.